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February 29 ZZ陈冠希德道歉全文Today I have come back to Hong Kong to stand before you and account for
myself. I have never escaped from my responsibility. During the past few
weeks, I have been with my mother and my family and my loved ones to show
support and care and at the same time to have them support and care for me.
I admit that most of the photos being circulated on the Internet were taken by me. But these photos are very private and have not been shown to people and are never intended to be shown to anyone. These photos were stolen from me illegally and distributed without my consent. There is no doubt whoever obtained these photos have them uploaded on the Internet with malicious and deliberate intent. This matter has deteriorated to the extent that society as a whole has been affected by this. In this regard, I am deeply saddened. I would like now to apologize to all the people for all the suffering that has been caused and the problems that have arisen from this. I would like to apologize to all the ladies and to all their families for any harm or hurt that they have been feeling. I am sorry. I would like to also apologize to my mother and my father for the pain and suffering I have caused them during the past few weeks. Most importantly, I would like to say sorry to all the people of Hong Kong. I give my apology sincerely to you all, unreservedly and with my heart. I know young people in Hong Kong look up to many figures in our society. And in this regard, I have failed. I failed as a role model. However, I wish this matter will teach everyone a lesson. To all the young people in our community, let this be a lesson for you all. This is not an example to be set for you. During my time away, I have made an important decision. I will whole-heartedly fulfill all commitments that I have to date. But after that, I decided to step away from the Hong Kong entertainment industry. I have decided to do this to give myself an opportunity to heal myself and to search my soul. I will dedicate my time to charity and community work within the next few months. I will be away from Hong Kong entertainment industry indefinitely. There is no time frame. I have been assisting the police since the first day the photos were published and I will continue to assist them. After this press con., I have obligation to help them with their investigation and hope that this case can end soon as everyone I think has the same wish. I would like to use this opportunity to thank the police for their hard work on this case. Thank you. I believe everyone’s priority now (and) my priority now is to stop the suffering and pain, for not letting this…we do not want to let this situation become more out of control. We need to protect all the innocents and all the young from matters like this. In this regard, I have instructed my lawyers to do everything possible within the law to protect all the innocents, victims of this case. I believe that a press statement is being issued as we speak on what my lawyers have advised me to do. February 28 好玩的网页1 www.eddy.com.cn/rc/kik.html
2 www.eddy.com.cn/rc/sdx.html 3 www.eddy.com.cn/rc/grp.html 4 www.eddy.com.cn/rc/zzy.html 5 www.eddy.com.cn/rc/psl.html 6 www.eddy.com.cn/rc/zoe.html 7 www.eddy.com.cn/rc/lth.html February 27 (五) 基本游戏对策浅析本人是绝对的菜鸟，曾经连喝十多杯翻不了身，因此对于游戏的高级技巧完全没有掌握。
现讨论一下基本的认识，结合前面的概率分析，望高手有暇指点一二。
简单的分，其实复杂的分也就是叫牌与接牌两种情况：
## 叫牌
## 接牌
小套路归纳
To be continued ... ... February 25 (四) 小归纳根据(三)的样本空间分布，可以做出以下的一些有用的小归纳 ##当数字1没有被叫到的时候： (一般来说，1被叫是一种非常规玩法，新手不易掌握) 1 最多只有两个一样的： (此时应该手上没有1，这个牌不算好，但是居然还蛮经常发生的) 2 最多有三个一样的 ： 3 最多有四个一样的 ： 4 五个都一样 有三个或三个以上的： 3500+1300+106 = 4906 p = 4906/7006 = 70.03% 只有一对： 1200 p = 1200/7006 = 17.13% 这样印证了前面others的观点，对方手中至少有3个一样的概率在70%以上 ##而当数字1被叫到的时候，基本上就跟前面没有万能骰子的分析一样了。 基本上分布情况就是这样，由于骰子游戏是个博弈行为，所以具体的技巧还需要进一步讨论，前面的概率分析到此结束。 酒吧是个好地方，John Nash在酒吧里把妹产生了双赢原则和博弈论，骰子游戏让我有兴趣去研究研究这位牛人到底干了些什么，呵呵。 February 17 水瓶座的战争08已到，也许人生至今没有比这一年更加关键的时光，一场最重要的战争避无可避。
多年以前，也就曾料想到在我博士生涯的这么一年里会有各种各样的问题和困难，假想过无数次面对这样的压力，何去何从，真的到了眼前，我还是感到窒息。青春已逝学业繁重，我再也不能背上我的双肩包装作84年的孩子，再也不能到处蹭打羽毛球，假扮很有前途的小朋友，从现在开始，我需要做的不再是站在角落里装成斯文有礼的读书人，我需要支撑起自己的世界，轮到我做presentation了，无论以前如何精心准备，战争总是不会在一切就绪的情况下开始，光线就在我的头顶，我需要表现的是绝对的勇气和实力。我太像一个被宠坏的大男孩，阳光了好多年，这样的生活也就这样到头了，男人需要谋略、事业来体现自己的价值。虚幻了很多年的梦想，需要具体化，现实化，生活没有童话，童话般的马勒别墅是极端的物质化。
水瓶座的人生也许太多飘逸，极少浑厚的降龙一击，一生玩巧玩阴招其实也可以，如朱隶，但是本人没有如此天才，狹道相逢，只有犟着搞了。水瓶座的视角太多浪漫，躲躲闪闪的暧昧没有意义，要就要说出来。
有好多年，都没有下定如此的决心来做一件事情，很多年都没有需要如此的给自己自我催眠，达到信心爆棚的程度，我从母亲那里也许继承了太多的温良恭俭让，含蓄了太长时间。叛逆期之后，很多年都没有残忍的对待自己，日子过得太舒服了一点。
聂凤说，家师有令，一定要拿到无双剑。我说，我要赢，一定。
February 02 5骰子双人游戏基本概率分析及对策浅析(三)简单概率二： (有约束的问题求解)
常规的吹牛游戏规则中，要求玩家在单骰（即5粒骰子里没有任何重复的点数）的情况下必须重摇。该规则的直接结果是：每个人都必然有至少一对骰子点数一样。这是个很重要的信息，虽然我们暂时还不知道对方的对子是什么点数。再来看余下的三个骰子，绝大多数吹牛规则里，允许1点在未被玩家叫过的情况下变为任意点数，所以我们这里暂且假设对方那一对不是两个1点（而是2到6中的一对），那剩下三个骰子里如果再有一个该点数的骰子或者1点的话，对方就有至少3个骰子点数一样了，这种情况可能性有多少呢？翻开上面的概率附表对照一下，恰符合情形②的描述，故根据附表二的第四行第六列可知：这个概率高达70.37%！即使我们不做前面的假设（没有对1点），仍因1点可以变做任意点数，故而概率也是同样的。这就是说，对方手中有三个点数一样骰子（包括1点）的概率超过了 2/3！
简化约束： constraint 1 : 必须有重复点数 1 没有1，5个骰子随意排列 total = 3005 3 二个1 ， 3个骰子任意排列 total = 1250 4 三个1， 2个骰子任意排列 total =250 5 四个1 ， 还有一个骰子随便 25 6 五个1 1 这就是根据数字1 和 约束条件来划分的各种状况的分布。 另外，对于某固定点数，如讨论有1个2 2个2 3个2 之类的概率 同 对数字的分析 5骰子双人游戏基本概率分析及对策浅析(二)Basic probability: this article focus on the 5-dice problem, so the hypothesis space is 5-dimension and totally 6^5 = 7776 different situation.
Some data is from other's blog, but I can not give the detailed reference because no credible citation machanism exists in the internet. If you are the original provider of the data and can prove your claim, pls tell me.
简单的概率情况 一：
total = 7776
1 5个骰子掷出后，其中至少有一个骰子点数是指定的某数字（1~6）的概率
n = 6^5 - 5^5 = 4651 （除掉只有5种点数的概率） p = 4651/7776 = 59.81%
2 至少有2个骰子点数一样
6个点子都不同： 6*5*4*3*2 = 720 p = 9.26%
至少有两个点子一样： 7776-720 = 7056 p = 90.74%
至少有两个某点数的点子一样： 上述情况的1/6 p = 15.12%
3 至少有3个骰子点数一样
n = 6*[C(5,3)*(5^2)+C(5,4)*(5^1)+C(5,5)] = 1656 p = 21.30%
计算方法 固定于某个点数，有三个一样的，四个一样的，五个一样的
概率是C(5,3)*(5^2) ， C(5,4)*(5^1) ， C(5,5)其他2 1 0个骰子随便另外5种之一
那么至少有三个某固定点子的概率(比方说3个3)是 上述情况的1/6 p = 21.30 / 6 = 3.55%
(感谢Matlab公司纵容我的无聊)
4 至少有4个骰子点数一样
n = 6*[C(5,4)*(5^1)+C(5,5)] =6*26 = 156 p = 2%
至少有四个某固定点子的概率 1/6 * 2% = 0.3%
5 至少有5个骰子点数一样
n = 6 p = 0.077%
五个点子都是某固定某数的概率 1/6 * 0.077% = 0.018%
5骰子双人游戏基本概率分析及对策浅析(一)Title : Basic Probability Analysis and Strategy in 5-Dice Duel Game
Abstract: These articles will give out the basic probability of the common conditions in this Game, and try to analyze and make usual strategy.
Intro:
近日，风雪交加，偶一日约吟于汉江之滨某广厦之上，见识一少年，持5骰之盅，约战众人，附琼浆若干为注，横扫吾伴于侧，又屡败其同僚，得意之色洋洋。
斗不自量力，约战几合，败者居多，方寸已乱，唯叹英雄少年，惭愧而归。次日，午后居陋室，血气未平，不忿渐起，量久而定方略，思惑之根本，为概率或然之数，
意尽经年之所学，求其韬略，乃备日后酒肆不时之需，次能解似吾伴辈之忧，进而教黄口小儿，断不敢操无学之术，贻笑于大方。游戏博弈之术，貌似泛泛，实则艰深
也拜四面八方之友，如资深者赐其术，若研究者献其学，以辨骰盅之奥。
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